After news that Bob Iger would again lead Disney, many were left speculating about what prompted the sudden shift at the House of Mouse. After all, Bob Chapek’s contract was renewed by the board at Disney just five months ago. What gives? Was it the MCU’s performance this summer? Parks? And then a thought: the “Avatar: The Way of Water trailer dropped last summer,” oof. Is it a stretch?
We don’t know what happened at Disney, for now (though Strange World might have had some impact). But given it was just reported that the sequel will need to earn $2 billion to break even (we assume that’s to cover production and marketing costs for 3 sequels); it’s probably best that the film is on track for success (duh).
But what would it look like if screening for a film like this went the wrong way this far along in the process? What are studios looking for when they’re trying to project whether a film will flop?
Avatar: The Way of Water trailer(s)
From what we can find online, the Avatar: The Way of Water marketing team has dropped three trailers (excluding the IMAX version).
We used our projected audience scoring system to determine the quality of the video/audio thus far and research data about the project’s stakeholders’ last films and trends on social media (we can’t give it all away).
Here are our scores from last week:
Here are all three trailers for Avatar 2.
The Way of Water Trailer 1
The Way of Water Trailer 2
The Way of Water Trailer 3
So how do all three trailers hold up?
Projecting the audience score for The Way of Water
Some films have less narrative than others. Some don’t need dialogue. Here, The Way of Water has very little dialogue to move the narrative forward. This could suggest that the story doesn’t have enough depth to flesh it out in a way that audiences can connect to (without other production tools and special effects).
The trailers also share reused content. Namely, the whalevatar reaching for Jake, Neytiri’s Cleopatra close-up, Neytiri’s bow-hunting scene, and the Temple Runner clip on the tree (there may be more).
The visuals and special effects are solid, and we have no doubt there will be plenty of cool things to see, whether an animal is pointing to them or not. But they have reused clips.
However, James Cameron hasn’t shied away from Avatar’s reputation as being a theatrical experience over a great story (not to say Avatar’s story wasn’t great, it just wasn’t the highlight). As such, the promos can rely on something other than narrative and the final reel to give viewers a sense of what they will experience (and expect): an immersive world filled with rich special effects and a gripping musical score.
And we have no doubt the soundtrack will be incredible. With the budget he was given, Cameron has no reason to short the audience.
All three trailers have racked up over 60 million views and 1.4 million “likes” on YouTube, which equates to a turnover rate of 2% – not bad at all. The footage Fox has released is “clicking,” so to say.
For stakeholders involved, the average critic score for their last three films is 7.1.
Without getting into all the math, we came to an audience score of 80.75. Our range is between 80 – 84.
Summary
If our estimates are close (see previous scores above), the trailers, trends on social, and momentum of the stakeholders involved with The Way of Water would suggest a final audience score on Rotten Tomatoes for The Way of Water at 80.75.
Whether the score is in the ballpark or not, if The Way of Water does nail an audience score of 80 or more, it should break even with all the hype. It will be interesting to see where exactly The Way of Water does land, but at a minimum, a score of 80 is appropriate for the trailer(s), in our opinion. Only time will tell if it translates into a similar score for the 180-minute film.
But it takes us back to the original question: if there’s confidence within the C-level ranks at Disney that The Way of Water will earn at least what it costs, what’s with the shake-up so late in the year?
In any case, continue to expect questions from investors and the media.
Avatar 2 stars Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, Stephen Lang, Vin Diesel, Michelle Yeoh, and Jon Landau.
Avatar: The Way of Water hits theaters on December 16, 2022, in IMAX and standard format.